It seems like Israel is facing a grave new challenge with the soon to be Hamas government. Within a stone’s throw of Israeli cities a terrorist organization is taking control and the world is holding it’s breath. But at a second glance, the problem doesn’t look that new.
Hamas is recognized as a terrorist organization throughout the western world, it’s public statements and charter state it’s intentions clearly: the destruction of Israel. Furthermore, far from being empty statements Hamas has repeatedly shown it’s dedication to these statements by carrying out brutal attacks on civilians, including pregnant women and children, leaving hundreds dead and maimed.
Still, voices are heard that call for Israel to give Hamas time, let them get a grip on their new situation. After all, a position of power gives a completely new perspective. They will have to manage the actual needs of their people and pragmatism will be a natural consequence.
Even though these arguments might sound reasonable they contain a fatal flaw - the belief that we understand the psychology and priorities of fanatics. Many examples can be listed where such reasoning had disastrous results. Hitler, for example, was also supposed to become pragmatic when he came to power.
In this case though, we need not venture into countries and times far away. History has, resulting in a rare advantage for today’s decision makers, given us a perfect example, a completely identical case in all relevant criteria. It is worthwhile to study it in detail.
Spin the clock back to Oslo, 1993. In an unprecedented move, the Israeli government allowed the PLO, headed by Yasser Arafat, to form a government and assume control of large areas previously controlled by Israel. The PLO, like Hamas, was internationally recognized as a terrorist organization. Like Hamas, PLO members often gave virulent speeches and had a charter declaring it’s commitment to the armed struggle and the eradication of Israel. And like Hamas the PLO backed it’s charter by repeated attacks on innocent Israelis and Jews worldwide.
And it did not end with that. Another idea, which we are sure to hear again in the near future concerning Hamas, was implemented. Money was collected in taxes to fund the new Palestinian government and Israel equipped and trained PLO security forces including the transfer of some 30,000 assault rifles. The idea was to strengthen the PLO - the closer the PLO would be to a full-fledged State the more they would have to loose by reverting back to their violent ways. They could only gain from cooperation and it would be in their own self-interest to eliminate terrorism. That’s what they needed the rifles for.
The rifles are being used in terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians to this day.
The terrorism never stopped, as time passed it mostly got worse. Although Yasser Arafat and the PLO always publicly portrayed themselves as peacemakers evidence to the contrary started presenting itself. Slowly it became clear that the PLO never stopped advocating terrorism, they didn’t even go through the trouble of changing their own charter.
It was increasingly revealed that Arafat and the PLO not only refrained from fighting terrorism but continously encouraged and supported it with all their resources, from creating public support through a state controlled media to supplying the actual weapons and money needed to carry attacks out. Still, it took the world another few years to accept this, which happened in January 2002 when the Israeli army intercepted a naval vessel, the Karine A, carrying 50 tons of Iranian funded weaponry heading for the Palestinian Authority.
The Oslo accords were a well meant attempt at creating the peace Israel hopes for so much. It backfired heavily because the approach was to apply a european notion of rationalism and pragmaticism (assumed to be universal) to a fanatical organization following a completely different set of rules. This mistake resulted in a thousand deaths, a well developed terrorist network within striking distance of Israeli cities and an economy in shambles. The lesson was learned the hard way: Fanatics in power do not become pragmatic, they use their power to escalate the execution of their goals.
